Tuesday, September 16, 2008

POLITICS: OUR CURSE?

Last evening as I shuffled through channels seeking business news, I noted that there seem to be a silent agreement between the NSE and the media houses not to accelerate the panic at the bourse with one just glossing over the days performance and another not even bothering to report on the days activity. However one station, which seems to relish on negatives news very much, gave a detailed report of the continuing massacre. The News anchor either out of ignorance or sadistic malice gleefully reported on the slide in a manner, such that, if one entered into the room midway, one would be forgiven to think that she was reporting about a massive bull run. Digressing, outside their pretty faces[depending on the eyes of the beholder], what other criteria do those who employ them consider for employment because in my honest opinion, some of them, fit the African version of the stereotype blond.

While there are many reasons as to why most exchanges in the world are bearish, Ours is also compounded by our politics. I wish there was a way where we could round up all these politicians, lock them up and throw away the key. Whether its the buffoon dully elected president, who lately, even junior civil servants seem to have very little respect for, the clownish right honorable Prime Minister, or the dwarfish president wannabe, the politics they played have put us in the current mess. And what is their loss? none!!!! They continue getting their obscene perks and continue to have have influence to even get more affluent even as, us ordinary mortals, continue fighting one another over them, as inflation continue to strangle us and our value continues getting eroded as the NSE slides, interest rates rises and property like homes keep getting out of our reach.

What is our curse that we allow these bunch of users to continue raping us. Exit the Duly elected, enters another bunch of clowns. One has the temerity to aspire to rule us after his Father grabbed with impunity all the land that ordinary folks died fighting for while another shamelessly embarks on political campaigns even when wounds caused by similar activities last year, have not had bandages removed.

Who, pray, shall lock lock up this crowd for us?

Saturday, September 6, 2008

NSE NIGHTMARES

After watching my value continue to slide in the last 2 months, this week I have taken a bold move which I never thought I could; I bailed out of all my counters.

I, like most investors come in strongly post KENGEN when the market was bullish, and therefore most of my portfolio was bought almost at their peak however I preyed on some stocks which I had handsome gain in capital. As a result factoring in all dividends received, bonus issue and Rights issue gains, my loss averaged to something like -8%

Counters contributing major loses include
Mumias
Kenya Airways
Barclays Bank
BAT

Counters with reasonable Capital gains include
CENTUM
EQUITY
KENGEN
NIC
CMC
KENYA RE

WAY FORWARD
After this bold move I can now watch the market with an opportunistic view than with the dread I have doing lately as I observed my value get eroded by the current bear. However I am a much more experienced player and the lessons I have learned iclude
1 Do not over diversify, concentrate on a maximum of 4 counters whose value you believe in and can provide future growth prospects.
2. Never follow the herd, Safaricom being my most bitter experience. In future I will not participate in very liquid IPO's, in short over supply in shares is counter productive for an an investor with an eye on capital gains